Thank you for participating in our joint opening ceremony.
Yun-keol Lee (Chairman of NKSIS)
I am ready to do my very best in appreciation of all South Koreans for their support.
Eun-jae Lee (Congresswoman of GNP)
Even though we all had been aware of human rights conditions under tyranny in the North, the 'Sunshine Policy' had helped sustain the dictator's government. Please work together and support our effort to make such policies toward the North [which will actually help N. Korea.]
Chang-suk Yang (Director of Head Office for South-North Conference)
On behalf of Ministry of Unification, we wish you congratulations. This special occasion indicates that defectors from the North are starting to make significant contributions to the South Korean society. I understand that the best North Korea specialists in the country are participating in today's seminar. Today’s seminar will surely help improve information management on N. Korea.
Sung-wook Nam (Director of Institute for National Security Strategy)
Seminars and discussions on South-North issue will help advance the unification of two Koreas. I hope you will fulfill your original intentions and purposes at this important threshold.
Chang-ho Kye (Director of Institute of North Korean Studies)
The Institute of North Korean Studies has performed research solely on North Korea for the past 40 years. Let us work with the hope of rescuing our family in the North from inhumane oppression.
Young-soo Lee (CEO of Unisource Inc.)
Having visited Russia before it was Soviet Union, I have clearly seen how communist regimes destroy humanity. I’ve seen serious national division when we should be working to join forces to defend our nation [from the communist regime]. I wish that you both [organizations jointly celebrating a new beginning today] will help maintain national security. Please help lead the public opinions on the right path with accurate information.
"Prospects of 3rd Hereditary Successor's Regime and Our Strategic Countermeasures"
Dr. Sung-sang Chung (Senior Researcher of Sejong Institution)
Today's seminar will discuss in depth on this particular subject.
So far, much of the information circulating in our society has been based on speculation rather than concrete data. Many had predicted that Kim Jong-nam would be the successor simply because he was the first-born; although, in fact, he was neglected because he was the child of a concubine. It had been also speculated that Jang Seong-taek would become a regent, without consideration of how influential he actually is over the army. People's expectation that Kim Jong-un might receive first vice-chairmanship of the National Defense Committee (NDC) did not realize. In my opinion, this was not because it was too early for him to assume that role, but because NDC was going to break down eventually.
We must not fantasize about the future of N. Korea. It is unlikely that it will collapse in the near future, as Kim Jong-un has taken over the army and security organizations. There is, however, room for changes. As late Mr. Hwang Jang-yeop said, the North will not transform into a free democratic society in a day, though it certainly will collapse some day if they choose to adopt reformation and an open-door policy as China did.
Moderator: Dr. Jo-won Lee (Professor of Choongang Univerity)
Let's wait and see how the situations in the North will actually turn out. Chairman Lee of NKSIS has shocked the academic world with new information. When the majority thought that Park Nam-ki was shot to death, Mr. Lee revealed it was not so. He is alive and roaming through Europe with a new mission, according to Mr. Lee. It seems that Dr. Chung and Chairman Lee are partnering to contribute vital information to the academic world.
Now we present Dr. Sang-jung Byeon, a researcher of Institute for National Security Strategy.
Dr. Sang-jung Byeon (Researcher of Institute for National Security Strategy)
It is my pleasure to participate in this seminar and have a discussion on the thesis with great insight. I sympathize with Dr. Chung's view on the major problems in dealing with North Korea information, especially on the issue of succession. We still have errors in discerning truth and falsehood of given information. We also have errors in our interpretation. True, it is the limitation we have, given that the North is the world’s most secluded society. We should realize, however, that some of the discussions we are having about Kim Jong-un, such as which post he will be appointed, are unimportant. What's important is that they are concentrating on restoring economy, as seen by their tendency to strengthen economic cooperation with China or their attempts to induce foreign investments this year. The real issue is not about which post Kim Jong-un takes as a successor, but that they are putting all their energy on restoring relationship with the US, in order to protect their hereditary succession and improve domestic economy.
Q. You are saying that the current Chief of National Security Ministry's rapid promotion is due to his close relationship with Kim Jong-un. Do you have any concrete evidence that he is indeed a close aide of Kim?
Q. Wouldn’t the situation change drastically in N. Korea after Kim Jong-il's death?
A. We hear testimonies from N. Korea defectors who were high-ranking officials, as well as official announcements from Chosun News (DPRK.) We have other sources, but please understand that I can't discuss specifics in order to protect my informants.
Dr. Chan-il An (Director of WINK)
I would like to point out that we are dealing with less advanced society whose information network and technology is underdeveloped. This makes it harder for us to collect their strategic information.
Currently, nearly 20% of students in the South believe that North Korea did not attack the warship Choenan. In 1968, no one suspected that the North attacked the Korean Presidential Residence. Ever since Korean Airline airplane was shot down, people started to form different opinions. Some believed that South Korean government is slandering the North. This is because we do not understand North Korea correctly. We do not have objective evidence on how they operate; for example, we do not understand how they mobilize armies for terrorism and merge government agencies with that purpose.
Recently, organizations such as NKSIS, Open Radio for North Korea, or North Korea Intellectuals Solidarity have been giving us correct information based on the source network in the North, There were, however, unconfirmed information circulating as well. One organization reported to us that a food riot took place in Shinuiju. Another organization told us that this was false information.
North Korea today, in fact, has no valid strategy because they are lacking three things: leadership, finances, and hope. We should observe and analyze this society with objectivity without exaggeration.
Dr. Kyoung-sup O (Researcher at Sejong Institution)
I agree with Dr. An's view based on years of studies. I also agree that we should attempt to encourage the North to become a free-market, democratic society.
I understand that NKSIS considers it its mission to provide high-class intelligence, and this is a very timely endeavor. However, we must now struggle to give concrete shape to that plan. How many elites are there? Is there any discontent? If so, who? We should know this because we need to figure out which part of the society is weakened, and target that weak section to bring about change in current dictator's regime and replace it with a regime that is more open to democracy and market economy.
N. Korea had strategically created an underground party in the South and supported pro-democracy movements, using it to stir the South Korean government. We should figure out a way to use this same strategy back in North Korea.
Dr. An and Dr. O have raised several important points concerning North Korea information.
Dr. Chan-il An (Director of WINK)
It is a very important [as pointed out by Dr. O] to find out ways to gain foothold in the North and create network.North Korean society looks solid, but in fact, it can be easily shaken by power of information. A concrete example of gaining foothold in the North is the ability of NK defectors to send money to their families in the North. Last year, almost20,000 Million Won(ROK) was sent to families in the North. This flow of money will help strengthen the market economy in the North, as well as win the minds of the people to oppose current regime.
This is a groundbreaking event in that it is the first significant academic seminar, hosted by scholars originally from the North. I, from the academic circle, sincerely wish your progress and growth. This is the end of Session One.
Yun-keol Lee (Chairman of NKSIS)
It is significant to ask- Is there a concrete way to gain strategic information? I believe the answer is yes.For example, even Chun Young-lok, when he was living, despite being a top-class executive in the North, had to have someone from outside the North make money for his family, because Kim Jong-il did not pay him enough. There are possibilities of creating network to gain strategic information as illustrated. And if we succeed in having an informant at the heart of the current regime, that guy will be our guy. If we improve our efficiency in these attempts, we need not be fear even their nuclear missiles.
In order to manage North Korea information efficiently, we must understand that every decisions are made by closest aides of Kim Jong-il and Jong-un’. Their words, motivations, and their movements all affect important national decisions. It is difficult to track these down; however, it is very important and it is possible. For example, we can gain information from the people [outside North Korea] who do trading business with important figures in the regime. We can also use network of people who develop weapons of mass destruction in the North to give us information. My college friends, who are intelligent scientists, used to talk about how there was no future for North's regime. Even though they are not explicitly expressing their opinions, their dissatisfaction for the current regime was obvious. South Korea’s private and public sector should cooperate to manage these kinds of networks. Lastly, our government should find ways to efficiently manage defectors from the North’s elite class and cooperate with them in making policies on North Korea.
During the 90’s 'March of Tribulation', North Korean people starved because they lacked $30 million to spend on food supply. Kim Jong-il knew this, yet he spent $80 million to construct his father's cemetery. $30 million is not a huge amount for our GDP. We should use our resources to gain strategic information, put our people inside North Korean regimes, and manage a network of people who will work with us.
Program For The Event "Prospects of 3rd Hereditary Successor's Regime and Our Strategic Countermeasures"
NK Strategic Information Service Center(NKSIS) held an opening ceremony with World Institute for North Korea Studies(WINK) in Gangnam district of Seoul, on April 12th. The ceremony is followed by a seminar with North Korea specialists from different organizations.
△Congratulatory Message Eun-jae Lee (Congresswoman of the Grand National Party) Chang-suk Yang (Director of Head Office for South-North Conference) Il-joo Kim (Chairman of North Korean Refugees Foundation) Sung-wook Nam (Director of Institute for National Security Strategy) Chang-ho Kye (Director of Institute of North Korean Studies) Soon-kyoung Hong (Chairman of Committee for the Democratization of North Korea) Young-soo Lee (CEO of Unisource Inc.)
- Master of Ceremony Hae-yeon Choi (Chief Director of NKSIS)
△Seminar Session 1. Prospects of the 3rd Hereditary Successor Kim Jong-un's Regime Moderator ; Prof. Myoung-kyu Park (Director of Institute for Peace and Unification Studies of SNU)
Presentation (1) ; Dr. Sung-sang Chung (Senior Researcher of Sejong Institution) Subject ; Progress of the Powershift to 3rd Hereditary Successor and Changes of Leadership Dr. Sang-jung Byeon (Researcher of Institute for National Security Strategy)
Presentation (2) ; Dr. Andre Lankov (Professor of Kookmin University) Subject ; Strategic Countermeasures against the Establishment of Kim Jong-un's Regime Dr. Sung-mook Moon (Former Deputy Head of the Armament Control Division of the National Defense Ministry)
Session 2. South Korea's Control Over the Strategic Information of North Korea Moderator ; Dr. Jo-won Lee (Professor of Choongang Univerity)
Presentation (1) ; Dr. Chan-il An (Director of World Institute for North Korea Studies) Subject ; Present Conditons and Problems in Our Control Over the Strategic Information of North Korea Dr. Kyoung-sup O (Researcher at Sejong Institution)
Presentation (2) ; Yun-keol Lee (Chairman of NKSIS) Subject ; Ways to Improve Our Control Over the Strategic Information of North Korea Dr. Chung-soo Kim (Director of Research Center at North Korean Refugees Foundation)
Session 3. Government-Civilian Cooperation in the Process of Policy-making Toward North Korea Moderator ; Dr. Young-tae Chung (Director of North Korea Research Center at Korea Institute for National Unification)
Presentation (1) ; Jun-hee Chung (General Head of Intelligence Analysis Bureau at Ministry of Unification) Subject ; Present Conditions of Government-Civilian Cooperation in the Process of Policy-making Toward North Korea Mr. Young-jong Lee (Deputy Head of Joongang Daily's Politics Department)
Presentation (2) ; Dr. Mi-nyuh Shin (Director of Organization for One Korea) Subject ; The Role of NGO in the Process of Policy-making Toward North Korea Dr. Joo-cheol Lee (Researcher at KBS)
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