A source reported on the 22nd, "Because most powers have already been transferred to Kim Jong-un, it is unlikely that there will be any sudden situation of crisis in North Korea even if Kim Jong-il were to die." The source said power is allocated at a ratio of about 70:30, with Kim Jong-un holding the balance. Kim Jong-un now executes more than twice the offices of authority in the North than does his father.
Looking at power in North Korea in three areas - leadership powers (that is, authority for the leadership and management of North Korea's reporting system of lower officials), personnel powers, and financial powers- Kim Jong-un has 100% leadership power, 70% authority over matters of personnel, and 40% over financial matters.
Full autocratic rights were passed on not just based on the founding state juche ideology's theory of dictatorial succession but also according to the direct will of Kim Jong-il. The so-called leader succession theory is North Korea's original theory. The theory insists on the legitimacy of the succession of power through three generations of the Kim family (Kim Il-sung - Kim Jong-il - Kim Jong-un). And from before the time when Kim Jong-il first presented his third born son Kim Jong-un center stage as his successor, the process of the power succession had been started in 2007 and begun its completion in June 2009.
According to the last report, within a year, from June 2010, Kim Jong-il and Kim Jong-un's domestic levels of authority were of the same rank. Since then, the source believes that through getting hold of the military and party's reporting system, Kim Jong-un has basically finished the process of attaining sole power. Kim Jong-il's recent trips to China and Russia were lengthy compared to those he took in the past. The fact that the media reported on his presence abroad while he was actually abroad substantiates the view that Kim Jong-un is in full control. Such reporting is unprecedented when viewed against the background of North Korea's traditional principal of protecting the leader.
Excepting for the highest personnel of state, Kim Jong-un has already seized the appointment process for government officials below the department heads of State Administration Council, according to the source. He is in possession of responsibility for all appointments up to the mid-ranking levels, while Kim Jong-il, through his office, retains the right to appoint from among his closest associates and highest officials for highest level posts. Especially in military matters, Kim Jong-un, through the Party Central Military Commission, now has an inherent right over personnel matters. As we reported on the 6th August, Kim Jong-un has yet to be granted the right to the will and private papers of Kim Jong-il's private secret office (see footnote1,) but such restrictions are few and quantatively ever more powers of personnel organization are being passed over to him.
Currently, however, Kim Jong-un has only about 40% authority in financial matters. Certain matters of national finance such as the gold mines and 100,000 new homes projects have been delegated to him, but the view is that a more comprehensive handing over of the financial reins won't occur until 2012.
Simple mathematic accounting of the balance of authority as currently divided between Kim father and son shows that of an aggregate of 300 points of authority (direct leadership 100, personnel 100, finance 100), Kim Jong-un accounts for 210 points and Kim Jong-il just the remaining 90, a ratio of 7:3.
"It's reasonable to assume," analyzed the source, "that even should Kim Jong-il die in the near future, although there could be a certain amount of confusion in ruling circles, the chances of the North Korean system experiencing a total collapse are close to zero." Kim Jong-il met with Xi Jinping, the head of the next Chinese administration, on his recent visit to China. At that meeting he conveyed to Xi that he had directly approved of the vesting of authority for national affairs in the hands of Kim Jong-un as his own power decreased (see footnote2.)
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